India's become the proving ground for AI's biggest gamble yet. OpenAI, Google, and Perplexity are pouring free AI credits into the country's 1.4 billion potential users, sacrificing near-term revenue for market share in what could become the world's second-largest AI market. As free trials wind down in 2026, the question everyone's asking is whether India's massive user boom can actually translate into paying customers, or if companies just burned billions courting users who'll never subscribe.
The numbers coming out of India are staggering. OpenAI has seen ChatGPT usage in the country surge past 100 million monthly active users, while Google's Gemini and search rival Perplexity are racing to match those figures. But here's the catch - almost nobody's paying for it yet.
These companies are essentially running the most expensive user acquisition campaign in tech history. OpenAI launched ChatGPT Go with extended free trials in India, Google bumped Gemini Advanced access for months at a time, and Perplexity Pro credits flow like water. The play is obvious: get India hooked on AI assistance before competitors can, even if it means watching potential revenue evaporate in the short term.
The strategy isn't new. Meta spent years offering Free Basics internet access across India and emerging markets. Netflix burned cash on mobile-only plans priced at $2 monthly. Spotify offered 99-cent Premium trials for months. The emerging market playbook has always been the same - land grab first, monetize later. But AI is different. The compute costs are brutal. Every free ChatGPT query burns money in GPU cycles.
India's appeal is undeniable. The country has 700 million internet users, most accessing the web through smartphones. English proficiency is widespread among urban professionals and students, the exact demographic most likely to use AI for work, education, and daily tasks. If or can convert even 5% of India's user base to paid subscribers at $10-20 monthly, that's potentially billions in annual recurring revenue.
