Leaked financial documents have unveiled the staggering scale of OpenAI's payments to Microsoft, revealing $865.8 million in revenue sharing for just nine months of 2025 - nearly doubling from $493.8 million for all of 2024. The leak exposes critical details about the AI giant's financials as it prepares for a potential IPO, raising serious questions about profitability in the booming AI sector.
The curtain has been pulled back on one of tech's most secretive financial relationships. Leaked documents obtained by tech blogger Ed Zitron reveal that OpenAI paid Microsoft a staggering $865.8 million in revenue sharing during the first three quarters of 2025 alone - a jaw-dropping increase from the $493.8 million paid for all of 2024.
The timing couldn't be more critical. As OpenAI prepares for what could be a trillion-dollar IPO, these numbers provide the first concrete glimpse into the company's actual financial performance beyond CEO Sam Altman's bullish projections.
According to Zitron's analysis, the leaked payments represent Microsoft's net revenue share - not the gross amount. This distinction matters because Microsoft also kicks back roughly 20% of revenues from Bing and Azure OpenAI Service to OpenAI, according to a source familiar with the matter who spoke to TechCrunch. The software giant deducts these royalties from its internal revenue share calculations.
If the widely reported 20% revenue-sharing agreement holds true, these payments suggest OpenAI's revenue hit at least $4.33 billion in the first nine months of 2025 - but the actual figure is likely much higher. Previous reports from The Information pegged OpenAI's 2024 revenue at around $4 billion, with first-half 2025 revenue at $4.3 billion.
Altman has been even more aggressive in his projections. The OpenAI CEO recently claimed the company's revenue is "well more" than $13 billion annually and will end 2025 above $20 billion in annualized revenue run rate. He's even floated the possibility of hitting $100 billion by 2027.
But here's where the story takes a concerning turn. The leaked documents also reveal OpenAI's massive inference costs - the compute power needed to run AI models and generate responses. According to Zitron's analysis, these costs may have reached $8.65 billion in the first nine months of 2025, up from roughly $3.8 billion for all of 2024.
A source familiar with the matter told TechCrunch that while OpenAI's training costs are largely covered by Microsoft credits from their investment deal, inference spending is predominantly cash. This means OpenAI could be spending more on running its models than it's earning in revenue - a troubling sign for a company valued at $157 billion.
The revelation adds fuel to growing concerns about an AI bubble. If the industry's poster child is potentially operating at a loss despite explosive revenue growth, what does this mean for the hundreds of AI startups commanding sky-high valuations?
OpenAI has historically relied almost exclusively on Microsoft Azure for compute access, though it's recently diversified with deals involving CoreWeave, Oracle, AWS, and Google Cloud. This diversification strategy appears to be driven partly by the need to manage these enormous compute costs.
Previous reports estimated OpenAI's total compute spend at roughly $5.6 billion for 2024, with "cost of revenue" hitting $2.5 billion in the first half of 2025. The leaked inference figures suggest these costs are accelerating even faster than revenue growth.
The financial pressure is intensifying as OpenAI faces increased competition from Google, Anthropic, and emerging players. The company recently completed a $6.6 billion funding round that values it at $157 billion, making it one of the world's most valuable private companies.
Both OpenAI and Microsoft declined to comment on the leaked documents, maintaining their typical silence around financial details of their partnership. The lack of official confirmation leaves investors and industry watchers parsing leaked data for insights into the AI leader's true financial health.
These leaked financials paint a complex picture of OpenAI's meteoric rise and the challenges ahead. While revenue growth appears explosive, the potentially unsustainable inference costs raise critical questions about the long-term viability of current AI business models. As OpenAI marches toward its anticipated IPO, investors will be watching closely to see if the company can achieve the kind of operational efficiency that justifies its stratospheric valuation. The stakes couldn't be higher - not just for OpenAI, but for the entire AI industry banking on similar growth trajectories.
