WHAT’S INSIDE

Top Signals: Warsh’s “new sheriff” Fed pivots hawkish + ditches forward guidance, Iran/Hormuz volatility spikes oil to $82 (risk $100+), & SpaceX briefly hits $2.9T 

Big Movers: Higher-for-longer rates + oil shock risk resets Q3 risk appetite; AI capex sensitivity back in focus; US–Iran talks inject “policy headline risk” into macro prints.

Open Deals: Kling AI $2B+ at $18B, Baseten $1.5B at $11–13B, CuspAI $400M at $2.6B, & General Intuition $300M at $2B.

Mega Rounds: Odyssey $310M (world models), Dream $260M at $3B (cyber), & GenSpark $100M at $2.6B (AI workspace).

Exit Watching: Accenture $4.18B cyber roll-up, Databricks buys Panther Labs, & Elastic buys DeductiveAI (up to $85M).

The Funding Buzz: Mantis VC raises $100M Fund IV; DeepSeek sets China AI valuation floor ($7.4B+ raise); AWS eyes selling Trainium chips (platform power shift).

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⚠️ TOP SIGNAL ALERT

The Key Signals We are watching this Monday that will shape the week ahead:

🚨 Warsh Declares "New Sheriff"

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh held rates steady but used first press conference to hammer "strict orthodox message on inflation with strong commitment to 2% price stability" stunning investors who expected dovish signals. Warsh announced five task forces, declined to submit his own dot plot projection, and suggested press conferences should only happen "when policymakers have something meaningful to say." Nine FOMC members now expect at least one rate hike this year, eight see unchanged rates, one still expects cut. Goldman Sachs base case remains unchanged rates if Iran deal closes and Strait of Hormuz reopens with S&P 500 Q2 earnings growth estimated 21.9% YoY per FactSet.

Why It Matters: Markets built entire 2026 strategy around Warsh cutting rates to juice AI productivity narrative. He just killed that playbook publicly. "New era with much less communication from the Fed" per EY-Parthenon chief economist means markets lose the forward guidance signals they've priced off for years. Every FOMC meeting now a surprise event. Stocks fell during press conference before recovering Friday (Nasdaq +1.91%, S&P +1.08%) but the volatility tells the story. Nine members voting for hike is enough to keep bond markets pricing tightening. UBS warns if Middle East supply disruptions ease "hawkish tone could fade" meaning oil prices are now the single most important input to Fed policy. Less Fed communication combined with high-stakes Iran negotiations creates maximum market uncertainty heading into Q3.

🚨 Iran-US Switzerland Talks Begin - Hormuz Closes

US/Iran began talks at Bürgenstock Switzerland with VP JD Vance and Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi as Iran announced Strait of Hormuz closed again before talks reopened. Brent crude climbed 2.2% to $82.30/barrel on Trump's fresh threats to strike Iran if Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel. Trump signed 14-point memorandum Wednesday giving 60 days for negotiations lifting naval blockade/promising to waive sanctions on Iranian crude. US Central Command reported 55 merchant ships transiting carrying 17M+ barrels Saturday with Energy Secretary Wright saying US still escorting ships "with or without Iran."

Why It Matters: Maximum ambiguity at every turn. Iran announcing Hormuz closed then allowing ships through anyway shows both sides using tactical information warfare to gain leverage. Vance calling it "beginning of technical negotiation that's not going to solve every disagreement" confirms no quick resolution. Critical blocker: Israel not party to talks but negotiations "ultimately hinge on Israel's support" with Netanyahu refusing Lebanon withdrawal. Trump simultaneously threatening Iran while negotiating gives Tehran justification to walk away anytime. Every additional month adds ~350M barrels to cumulative supply losses with "growing share that will never come back" per Rystad. Iran demanding Tehran-approved insurance for Hormuz transit is a non-starter for US/Europe/Gulf creating new friction. If talks collapse, oil spikes toward $100+, Warsh Fed forced to hike faster, AI capex financing costs explode. Markets pricing too much optimism too soon.

Big Movers

Big tech moves, movers and trends to watch this week

SpaceX — Briefly valued at $2.9T overtaking Amazon following $86B IPO and a 20% surge fueled by the $60B Cursor acquisition and compute-leasing deals.

DeepSeek — Raised $7.4B+ valuing $50B+ making it China's most valuable AI startup with founder Liang Wenfeng retaining control backed Tencent/CATL/IDG.

DeepSeek — Chinese AI startup raised a $7.4B+ first external round achieving $50B+ post-money valuation backed by Tencent, CATL, JD.com, NetEase, IDG, National AI Industry Investment Fund.

Plasma — Peter Thiel's Founders Fund-backed launched Plasma One stablecoin neobank app serving 5K+ weekly users 180+ countries with XPL token rising 20% post-$373M token sale.

Amazon Web Services — AWS exploring selling in-house AI chip Trainium to third parties aiming $50B revenue stream challenging Nvidia dominance leveraging TSMC manufacturing addressing capacity constraints.

Relativity Space — Led Eric Schmidt awarded NASA contract building Aeolus spacecraft for 2028 Mars mission providing daily atmospheric data utilizing public-private partnership sharing costs/risks.

OPEN DEALS

Big tech moves, movers and trends to watch this week

Open Deal: The Wyoming Exchange Building the "New York Stock Exchange for Nonprofits." Watch an investor talk by co-founders on WYDE’s mission & news.

Kling AI — Beijing AI video startup raising $2B+ at $18B post-money valuation with General Atlantic as reported lead investor creating videos/short films from prompts.

Baseten — $13B AI startup raising $1.5B expanding low-cost AI model services with dual-tier funding at $11-13B valuations. Aims to be alternative to OpenAI, Anthropic.

CuspAI — Cambridge AI startup nearing $400M at $2.6B valuation backed Bezos Expeditions/Kleiner Perkins focusing generative AI/molecular simulation for semiconductor/energy/climate materials.

General Intuition — NY startup developing AI agents with spatial-temporal reasoning seeking $300M at $2B valuation backed Jeff Bezos/Eric Schmidt/Khosla/General Catalyst enhancing compute capacity.

IN THE MONEY

Companies that raised money in the past week and why they matter

Massive Deals

Odyssey — Palo Alto general-purpose world model startup raised $310M Series B at $1.45B valuation led Natural Capital with Amazon/AMD/GV/EQT/In-Q-Tel enhancing AI-driven simulations.

Dream — Tel Aviv national cyber-defense startup raised $260M co-led Bicycle Capital/Group 11 with Antler/Bain/Tru Arrow valuing $3B post-money total funding $410M+.

GenSpark — Palo Alto AI workspace startup secured $100M Series B elevating valuation $2.6B with Sozo/Korea Mirae/UpHonest raising total funding $645M with 63% valuation increase three months.

Atom Computing — Berkeley neutral-atom quantum startup raised $100M Series C led Third Point Ventures with Cisco/DCVC plus $100M letter of intent from US Commerce Department.

Ent Security — SF endpoint defense startup secured $100M seed led Decibel Partners with Sequoia/Crosspoint/Craft/Shield/Felicis/In-Q-Tel preventing risky actions by employees/AI agents.

Hydra Host — Miami startup connecting data centers/GPU owners with enterprises needing AI compute raised $100M Series A at ~$800M valuation led Kindred with Nvidia/Ark/Founders Fund.

Twenty — Arlington VA AI-enabled cyber capability startup for US military raised $100M at $1B valuation led Accel with Point72/Friends & Family/Caffeinated totaling $138M raised.

Large Deals

XDOF — Berkeley robotics training data pipeline/annotation startup raised $70M backed Thrive/Spark/a16z/Lux/WndrCo aiding AI labs collecting/managing training data efficiently.

Gradial — Seattle AI platform raised $65M Series C at $675M valuation led Insight Partners with VMG/Madrona/PruVen automating enterprise marketing content creation/brand compliance.

Triveni Bio — Biotech specializing antibody therapies immunological/inflammatory disorders secured $65M Series C co-led Ascenta Capital/Janus Henderson with Deep Track Capital.

AttoTude — Menlo Park dielectric waveguide interconnects startup raised $52M Series C led Westly Group totaling $143M enhancing high-speed connectivity solutions for AI/data centers.

Bland — SF voice AI startup raised $50M Series C led Dell Technologies Capital with HubSpot Ventures boosting total $100M+ enhancing enterprise voice AI technology after 180 investor rejections.

Verse — SF energy procurement/battery storage startup for data centers raised $54M Series B led Bessemer with GV/Nvidia/Norrsken enhancing power access for data-center developers.

Interchecks — Brooklyn fintech raised $50M Series C expanding real-time payments platform enhancing fund transfers/payout management for financial services/gaming backed Bettor/Commerce/Thayer.

Smaller Deals

Convey — SF AI startup building AI "teammates" automating repetitive business workflows raised $38M Series A led a16z with Khosla/Pear VC.

Copia — NY startup managing/versioning/backing up PLC code for industrial automation secured $26M co-led AE Ventures/Squadra with KAS Venture.

Pramaana Labs — Palo Alto formally verified AI startup raised $27M seed led Khosla with Accel/Boldcap/Nexus targeting tax/healthcare/finance/government.

Architect Labs — Palo Alto startup secured $24M seed led Kindred Ventures with TQ/Race Capital/Together enhancing AI-driven platform for custom chip design.

Foundation Alloy — Cambridge solid-state metallurgy startup secured $22M Series A led Voyager Ventures expanding US production with Kanematsu distribution partnership enhancing engineered alloy production.

Aston Power — Raleigh power generation/delivery startup for data centers raised $20M Series A co-led TDK Ventures/Building Ventures with JLL Spark enhancing power delivery platform.

Critical Energy — Hawthorne CA ex-SpaceX startup developing modular turbines for geothermal power raised $19M seed led Susa/Upfront Ventures transforming rocket engines into sustainable energy.

Flagright — NY AI financial crime compliance startup secured $12.5M Series A led Infinity Ventures with Sella Bank/Frontline/Y Combinator marking milestone for five-year-old company.

EXIT WATCHING

Mergers & Acquisitions and IPOs

Databricks — Acquiring Panther Labs SF AI-driven threat detection cybersecurity startup with undisclosed terms marking strategic move into cybersecurity for data/AI company.

Accenture — Expanding cybersecurity portfolio investing $4.18B acquiring majority stakes Dragos and outright purchases runZero/NetRise enhancing protection of industrial infrastructure.

Hightouch — SF ad-tech startup valued $2.75B proposed $800M-$1.2B cash/stock acquiring LiveRamp's identity/data-onboarding assets following Publicis $2.2B LiveRamp acquisition agreement.

EigenQ — Austin quantum-tech cybersecurity startup going public via merger with Silicon Valley Acquisition valued ~$3B backed Capital Factory/Republic.

Elastic — Acquiring DeductiveAI AI-driven bug detection startup for up to $85M enhancing AI-powered observability/search capabilities previously valued $33M raised $7.5M from CRV/Databricks.

IPO Watch

Open or upcoming IPOs to watch:

SpaceX — Shares dropped 3.6% to under $185 following 20% slide from $225 intraday high bringing the average post-IPO buyer back to breakeven from $135.

OpenAI/Anthropic IPOs — Goldman Sachs/Morgan Stanley creating internal teams managing IPOs for OpenAI/Anthropic with rare confidential approach amid growing competition between two companies this fall.

Kardigan — South SF biotech focused precision cardiovascular medicines raised $400M upsized IPO with shares rising 31% on Nasdaq debut.

Xiaohongshu — Chinese lifestyle/video-sharing platform planning Hong Kong IPO this year aiming valuation $70B+ despite potential Beijing scrutiny pushing forward optimizing platform control.

Cellares — Prime Radiant Partners invested $50M in Series D achieving $327M total funding backed BlackRock/Ark Invest developing robotic platforms for cancer therapies eyeing 2027 IPO.

THE FUNDING BUZZ

VC & PE Activity To Watch

Mantis VC — The Chainsmokers-founded LA VC raising $100M fourth fund boosting assets over $300M backed successful startups Rogo/Factory AI each valued $1.5B+ transitioning to established VC.

Thrive Capital — NYC VC announced $10B raise for Thrive X tenth fund with $1B early-stage/rest growth-stage backed OpenAI/Stripe/SpaceX.

Benchmark — Raised $2B across $1.25B growth/$750M early-stage funds expanding beyond traditional $425M cap targeting later-stage investments.

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